เทคโนโลยีการจัดเก็บพลังงานระยะยาว 2024-2044: เทคโนโลยี ผู้เล่น การคาดการณ์

IDTechEx forecasts that the LDES market will be valued at US$223B in 2044. As the volume of variable renewable energy (VRE) sources penetrating electricity grids increases globally, so does the need to manage the increasing uncertainty and variability in electricity supply. Grids will be relying on different solutions to manage this, which could include building of overcapacity and interconnections, but also - importantly - long duration energy storage (LDES) technologies.

 

Aside from pumped hydro, Li-ion batteries currently dominate the global stationary energy storage market, and they are suitable for large, grid-scale installations to provide ancillary and utility services. As VRE penetration increases, however, demand for LDES technologies is expected to increase. These technologies will be needed to dispatch energy over longer timeframes (6+ hours) when energy from VRE sources is not available. The capital cost of Li-ion is unlikely to be low enough for LDES, and instead, alternative energy storage (ES) technologies aim to offer lower costs. One way to achieve this is through designs that allow for energy and power decoupling, resulting in faster and non-linear decreases in CAPEX ($/kWh) with increasing durations of storage. For example, some RFBs only require the scaling of electrolyte storage tanks and electrolyte volumes to increase the duration of storage, and liquid-air energy storage (LAES) systems can have liquid-air storage tank capacities scaled, while turbomachinery requirements do not scale with capacity (GWh) but with power output (GW).

 

 

This is partly why LDES technologies will be useful for providing durations of storage greater than 6 hours. Moreover, suspected Li-ion material constraints coming towards the end of the decade and the safety risks of Li-ion batteries are expected to be other key factors driving demand for other ES technologies generally.

 

Countries and states have announced VRE deployment targets, which will increase the share of electricity being generated by VRE. When electricity generated by VRE reaches 40-50%, this is when average duration of storage in a given country or state should be 6 hours to be most cost optimal for the electricity system, and thus will be when demand for LDES will increase. On average, globally, it will not be until the late 2030s where VRE forms 45% of the electricity generation mix. There will be key countries and US states that will potentially reach this percentage sooner, and so LDES will be in demand in these key regions sooner than others. Namely, this includes Germany, the UK, Italy, California, Texas, India, and Australia.

 

A great variety of LDES technologies are being developed across key regions. This includes electrochemical, mechanical, thermal and hydrogen storage. Technology classifications can be further segmented into specific technologies, detailed below. As of November 2023, ~US$4.0B has been invested into key players developing these technologies (excluding hydrogen).

 

 

 

However, several key considerations must be made when developing these technologies and determining their suitability for LDES applications. This report analyses the following technologies being developed by key players: iron-air (Fe-air), rechargeable zinc batteries (Zn-air, Zn-ion, rechargeable Zn-MnO₂, Zn-Br), high-temperature / molten-salt batteries, RFBs, (CAES), liquid-air energy storage (LAES), cryogenic / liquid-CO₂ energy storage (LCES), alternative and underground pumped hydro storage (APHS), gravitational energy storage systems (GESS), thermal and electro-thermal energy storage (TES) and (ETES), and hydrogen. Technology benchmarks against key metrics are also provided for 10+ LDES technologies including CAPEX (US$/kWh), round-trip efficiency, cycle-life / lifetime, and energy density.

 

Mechanical energy storage systems are likely to be a key contributor to the LDES market in the long-term, given that these systems become more economical to develop at larger sizes (100+ MW) and longer durations of storage. In the cases of LAES, LCES, and underground pumped hydro storage, it is possible to expand the capacity and thus duration of storage of such systems after initial commissioning, presenting another advantage. Some developers of mechanical ES systems are already looking to deploy GWh-scale systems by 2030 in some cases too. However, the potential need to mine new underground resources (in the case of CAES and underground pumped hydro), acquire land permits/leases, and facilitate wider EPC can require much larger volumes of funding, and the absolute cost ($) of mechanical ES projects is likely to be in the order of US$100M - US$1B. Acquiring large volumes of government or private financing from various sources can contribute to and delay project lead time for systems of this magnitude. This, paired with other technologies potentially offering the use of lower cost materials, and improved performance will result in the market seeing a greater diversification of LDES technologies in the 2040s.

 

A key barrier for more wide-scale implementation of LDES technologies is the need for longer term revenue visibility. As LDES systems are mostly going to be 100 MWh-to-GWh-scale systems, the value of these systems could be in the range of US$100M-1B+. Current wholesale electricity price arbitrage opportunities alone are generally not frequent or large enough to make a strong economic case for the widespread deployment of LDES in the current day. LDES developers will be looking to secure capacity market contracts to secure long-term and high volumes of annual revenue, but this alone is unlikely to cover most of the investment into an LDES technology. Ultimately, key players in interview with IDTechEx commented that regulatory reforms to revenue generation from energy storage are needed to improve the economic case for LDES systems, and to improve investor confidence.

 

This IDTechEx report also provides 20-year market forecasts on the LDES market for the period 2022 - 2044, in both capacity (GWh) and market value (US$B). Capacity forecasts are provided by both region and by LDES technology. Regions include Germany, the UK, Italy, India, Australia, California, Texas, and Rest of the World. Splits by technology include CAES, LAES, LCES, APHS, GESS, iron-air, Zn-air, static Zn-Br, TES, ETES, and RFBs including vanadium, all-iron, Zn-Br, Zn-Fe, H-Br, and organic.

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