เรือและเรือไฟฟ้า 2024-2044

Across the land-based electric vehicle sectors tracked by IDTechEx, there is mostly a transition to battery-electric propulsion systems over the next two decades. The case is not so simple for the marine sector: due to the sheer scale of the power, energy and distance requirements for merchant vessels, reducing maritime emissions will require solutions varying from Li-ion batteries and hydrogen fuel cells to green ammonia, green hydrogen and e-fuels.

 

Today, electric & hybrid propulsion systems in marine have mostly emerged in recreational boating, ferries and short-sea or inland vessels, where they have enjoyed steady uptake due to small vessel sizes or well-defined operational profiles that allow for opportunity charging. In larger deep-sea vessels, uptake is less rapid but gaining momentum as unprecedented global emissions regulations from the IMO and EU, which initially targeted NOx, SOx & PM, are now focussing on carbon & GHG emissions. The maritime sector is therefore under increasing pressure to decarbonize and meet broader climate goals, and while there is no silver bullet, solutions are potentially emerging into 'multiple silver bullets', each which can target a specific subsector. For example, batteries for pure electric ferries and tugboats, and green fuels (often paired with batteries) in hybrid sea-going vessels.

 

 

 

Pure battery-electric ships are often the best solution where operationally possible, in terms of reducing emissions and, typically, lifetime costs. Technological advancements in electric powertrain technology, driven by the automotive sector, are allowing systems of up to 70MWh be proposed for individual vessels. While the energy needs of deep-sea vessels between destinations span into the hundreds of mega-watt hours, beyond the capabilities of pure electric propulsion, battery systems add value by improving fuel economy of internal combustion engines and even fuel cells, driving a hybrid market.

 

By volume, electric recreational & leisure boating is the largest market, with tens of thousands sold yearly. These are the cars of the marine world - privately owned with relatively short-range requirements and pure electric with batteries up to a few hundred kWh. In contrast, several hundred hybrid deep-sea vessels are in-service today. Yet, this sector has the largest market value and demand for maritime batteries in the future due to the vessel sizes and high energy requirements involved, leading to giant battery systems per vessel.

 

The IDTechEx report 'Electric Boats & Ships 2024 - 2044' provides granular 20-year forecasts in unit sales, battery demand (GWh) & battery market value ($ bn) for electric ferry, electric cargo/container, electric Ro-Ro, electric cruise, electric OSV, electric tugboat and electric recreational boats by power class (<1kW, <12kW, >25kW). It further shares technology analysis and price information on marine Li-ion battery systems ($/kWh 2020 - 2044) and electric propulsion systems based on multiple supplier interviews.

 

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